IEA expects global oil market surplus in 2025

The International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report released Thursday that global oil supply could exceed demand by about 600,000 barrels per day this year, after lowering its demand growth forecast for 2025.

The agency explained that this surplus could increase by 400,000 barrels per day if the OPEC+ alliance extends the gradual removal of production cuts and does not curb production increases beyond the agreed quotas. According to Sky News, the IEA lowered its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 70,000 barrels per day to about 1 million barrels per day, with Asia, particularly the Chinese petrochemical sector, contributing significantly to this growth.

The agency added that demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of this year fell short of expectations amid an “unusually uncertain macroeconomic environment.”

It explained that “new US tariffs, coupled with escalating countermeasures, have potentially exacerbated macro risks.” The latest oil demand data was disappointing, and growth estimates for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 were slightly lowered.