Thursday, 25 July 2024

“Goldman Sachs” expects Saudi Arabia’s GDP to grow by 6% in 2025

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The American investment bank Goldman Sachs revealed its expectations that Saudi Arabia’s real GDP will grow by 2.4% in 2024, and will jump to 6% in 2025.

According to the Arab World News Agency (AWP), the Investment Bank expects Gulf economies to grow by 2.8% in 2024, rising to 5.2% in 2025.

According to estimates published by an analysis by the bank, the real GDP of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will grow by only half a percent in 2023.

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Last April, the International Monetary Fund reduced its forecast for the growth of the Gulf region’s economies by 1.3 percentage points to 2.4% in 2024, due to the voluntary oil production cuts implemented by OPEC+ countries, but it expected growth to accelerate to 4.9% in 2025 with improved oil and gas production.

The International Monetary Fund had indicated that the Saudi economy would grow by 2.6% in 2024 after shrinking by 0.8% last year, expecting growth to accelerate to 6% in 2025.

The Kingdom’s total foreign exchange reserves are expected to reach $626.5 billion in 2024, rising to $683.8 billion in 2025, according to Morgan Stanley estimates. The Kingdom is the largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and among the largest economies in the region.

The American Investment Bank believes that the break-even price of oil in the Saudi budget, which is the price that achieves a balance between revenues and expenses without recording a surplus or deficit, is $103.2 per barrel in 2024 and $94.6 in 2025.

In the UAE, estimates indicate that the economy will grow by 4.6% in 2024 and then decline to growth of 3.5% in 2025, from limited growth of 2.1% in 2023.

The International Monetary Fund had expected real growth for the UAE economy at 3.5 percent in 2024 and 4.2 percent in 2025.

The break-even price of oil in the budget of the UAE, which is among the most diversified economies in the region, is $48.6 per barrel in 2024 and 2025.

As for Qatar, one of the largest natural gas producers in the world, real GDP is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, then a jump to 6.5% in 2025. Qatar’s economy grew by 1.9% in 2023.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts indicate that the Qatari economy will grow by 2% in the current and next years.

Figures published by the bank indicate that the oil break-even price in Qatar’s budget is $66.8 per barrel in 2024 and $61 in 2025. Gas prices are usually linked to oil prices through a price equation.

In Kuwait, Goldman Sachs expects the economy to grow by 1.2% in 2024, rising to 2.7% in 2025.

In contrast, the International Monetary Fund expected Kuwait’s economy to contract by 1.4% this year, an improvement from a contraction of 2.2% last year, with the economy returning to growth at a strong pace of 3.8% in 2025.

It is estimated that the break-even oil price for Kuwait’s budget is $85.1 per barrel in 2024, decreasing to $73.3 per barrel in 2025.

In Bahrain, Goldman Sachs expects real GDP growth of 1.7% in 2024 and 2025, unchanged from the growth recorded in 2023.

The International Monetary Fund expects Bahrain’s real GDP to grow by 3.6% in 2024, with growth declining slightly to 3.2% in 2025.

The US bank expects the break-even oil price for Bahrain to reach $98.3 per barrel in 2024 and $95.9 per barrel in 2025.

As for the Sultanate of Oman, the economy is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2024, and to decline to only one percent in 2025. The Sultanate’s economy grew by 1.3% last year.

The International Monetary Fund expects Oman’s economy to grow by 1.2% in 2024, with growth rising to 3.1% in 2025.

For the Sultanate, the break-even oil price will reach $91.4 per barrel in 2024 and then decrease to $89.5 per barrel in 2025.

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