Morgan Stanley raises its estimates for oil demand growth in ‎‎2023 by 36%‎

Morgan Stanley raised its estimates for the growth of global oil demand this year by about 36%, based on the increasing momentum as a result of China’s lifting of restrictions related to the Covid-19 pandemic and the recovery of the aviation sector, but indicated that increased supply from Russia would offset that momentum. ,

According to “CNBC,” the bank said in a note dated yesterday, Tuesday, that global oil consumption is expected to rise by about 1.9 million barrels per day, compared to its previous expectations that the growth would reach 1.4 million barrels per day.

“Indicators of transportation in China, such as congestion, are rising steadily,” the bank stated, while “flight schedules have boosted expectations of demand for jet fuel.”

Analysts at the bank wrote that supplies from Russia were greater than expected, which led to a deficit slightly less than was assumed in the second half of the year, and thus analysts cut their forecasts for the price of Brent crude in that period to between $90 and $100 a barrel from what was expected between $ 100 and $ 110 in the past.

The bank continued, “We previously expected a decline of about one million barrels per day on an annual basis in 2023, then we revised it to 0.4 million barrels per day,” referring to its expectations for Russia’s production of one million barrels per day.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for the price of Brent crude for 2023 and raised its global supply forecasts for 2023 and 2024. The most prominent upward adjustments were in the share of Russia, Kazakhstan and the United States

But Goldman Sachs also noted that 1.1 million barrels per day rise in Chinese demand this year would push oil markets back into deficit in June.

Oil prices fell for the third consecutive session today, Wednesday, as Brent crude traded around $82.75 a barrel due to concerns about the impact of raising US interest rates on economic growth and fuel demand.

However, expectations of scarce global supplies and increased demand from China limited the decline in prices in general.