IMF: Saudi economic to grow 3.6% this yearIMF: Saudi economic to grow 3.6% this year

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Saudi economic growth this year (2025) to 3.6%, compared to a previous forecast of 3% (April 2025). It has also raised its forecast for growth in 2026 to 3.9%, compared to a previous forecast of 3.7%. This is in light of the continued strong momentum witnessed by the Saudi economy, supported by the non-oil sector.

According to the IMF’s July 2025 World Economic Growth Update report, titled “Weak Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty,” the Kingdom is among the countries with the highest projected growth rates globally for this year, after India (6.4%) and China (4.8%). The Kingdom’s projected growth rate this year is also higher than the average projected growth rate for the Middle East and North Africa region, at 3.4%. Regarding Saudi Arabia’s economic growth prospects for 2026, the projected growth rate of 3.9% is also the third-highest among G20 countries, after India (6.4%) and China (4.2%), and higher than the average growth rate of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at 3.5%.

The IMF’s increase in its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth reflects the continued improvement in the performance of the non-oil sector and the ability to overcome the turmoil that has affected all economies in the region. This increase is a result of reaping the benefits of the progress made in implementing the programs and policies of Saudi Vision 2030.

The IMF’s forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth this year exceeds the World Bank’s latest forecast (last June) for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth rate for 2025, which came in at 2.8%. The IMF’s forecast for Saudi Arabia’s economic growth in 2026 is lower than the World Bank’s forecast of 4.5%. The Fund’s forecasts are lower than those issued by the Saudi Ministry of Finance in its budget statement last December, which projected a 4.6% growth rate for the Saudi economy for 2025. The Fund’s optimistic outlook remains higher than the Ministry of Finance’s 2026 growth forecast of 3.5%.

The Fund’s recent forecasts for Saudi economic growth this year are similar to those of the General Authority for Statistics, which last June revised its annual growth forecast for the Saudi economy to 3.4% in the first quarter of this year, exceeding its previous May forecast of 2.7%, confirming the momentum provided by the non-oil sectors. The Fund’s forecast for Saudi economic growth this year and next is also close to what Standard & Poor’s predicted in a report (last March), which predicted real GDP growth of 4% during the period 2025-2028. However, the Fund’s forecast remains lower than the Fitch Ratings forecast issued last week, which projected the Kingdom’s GDP to grow by 4.3% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026, supported by higher oil production. Meanwhile, non-oil growth will remain strong, averaging 4.5%, supported by reforms, investment spending, and government spending. Regarding the global economy, the Fund raised its global growth forecast to 3% in 2025, compared to a previous forecast of 2.8% (last April). It also raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%, compared to a previous forecast of 3%.