Aljazira Capital: Aramco’s expected profits for the second quarter will reach SAR 90.6 billion, with a target share price of SAR 29.6

22 Jul 2025

Riyadh - Maaal

Aljazira Capital expects Aramco’s net profit for the second quarter of 2025 (after minority interests) to decline by 14.7% compared to the same quarter of the previous year and by 5.3% compared to the previous quarter to SAR 90.6 billion, compared to a 6.5% decline compared to the first quarter. This decline is a result of the 11.4% decline in crude oil prices during the quarter compared to the previous quarter. The target share price is SAR 29.6, with a recommendation to increase positions.

It also expects revenues to decline by 11.1% compared to the same quarter of the previous year and by 2.6% compared to the previous quarter to SAR 418.3 billion. Furthermore, exploration sector revenues will decline by 9.2% compared to the previous quarter, while refining sector revenues are expected to increase by 2.5% compared to the previous quarter. The operating profit margin contracted from 44.5% in the first quarter of 2025 to 44.1% in the second quarter of 2025.

The report forecasts a 2.6% decline in revenues compared to the previous quarter, reaching SAR 418.3 billion, with exploration sector revenues declining by 9.2% to SAR 167.4 billion due to lower oil prices. Average Brent crude prices fell by 11.4% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, reaching $65.9. Aljazira Capital forecasts that Aramco’s revenues and profits will be under pressure this year. Revenues are expected to decline by 4.3% compared to the previous year to SAR 1,724 billion, while net profits are expected to decline by 3.9% to SAR 378 billion during the same period. The forecast also indicates that average oil prices in 2025 will be $69 per barrel, 13% lower than the previous year. This is supported by the cancellation of voluntary production cuts by OPEC and its allies and the increase in oil production in the coming period.