IMF Forecasts for the World’s 10 Largest Economies: The US Leads, Germany Shrinks, India Tallies with Japan

Recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) show the ranking of the world’s 10 largest economies by current GDP. The United States continues to lead the list by a wide margin over its closest competitor, while India achieves a remarkable economic achievement by overtaking Japan to occupy the fourth place globally.

According to data updated through late May 2025, the United States’ GDP reached $30.51 trillion, with projected growth of 1.8% in 2025, remaining the world’s largest economy. China ranked second with a GDP of $19.23 trillion, with projected strong growth of 4%. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, ranked third, despite recording a slight contraction of -0.1%, with its GDP reaching $4.74 trillion. India, meanwhile, moved up to fourth place globally with a GDP of $4.19 trillion, surpassing Japan, which has the same nominal GDP but with weaker growth of 0.6%, compared to India’s 6.2%, the highest among the ten countries.

The United Kingdom ranked sixth with a total of $3.84 trillion, with projected growth of 1.1%, followed by France in seventh place with $3.21 trillion, with projected growth of 0.6%. Italy came in eighth with $2.42 trillion, with a growth of 0.4%. Canada came in ninth with $2.23 trillion, with a growth of 1.4%, and finally Brazil in tenth place with $2.13 trillion, with a projected growth of 2.0%. These figures reflect the ongoing shifts in the global economic landscape, with emerging economies, led by India and Brazil, emerging as fast-growing players. Meanwhile, some advanced economies face challenges of slow growth or even contraction, as in the case of Germany. This is due to the intensification of competition for economic and technological leadership amid global challenges including inflation, climate change, and geopolitical shifts.

It is worth noting that core inflation in Japan reached 3.5% in April, the fastest annual rate in more than two years. This puts pressure on the central bank to continue raising interest rates, as the Bank of Japan struggles to balance price pressures stemming from persistent food inflation with headwinds weighing on growth due to tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. The Fund also stated in another report that the disruptions associated with the implementation of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump will lead to “persistent uncertainty and slowdowns in activity among the UK’s trading partners, in addition to the direct impact of the remaining US tariffs on the UK,” with warnings that trade uncertainty could disrupt supply chains and lead to a decline in private investment, increasing the risk that growth will be weaker than expected.