Al Rajhi Capital Sees Aramco Q1 Profit Rising 14% Quarter-on-Quarter, Reiterates Overweight Rating

Al Rajhi Capital said it expects Saudi Aramco’s first-quarter 2025 profit (income before minority interest) to rise about 14% quarter-on-quarter to 95 billion riyals ($25.3 billion), supported by lower losses in the refining, processing, and marketing (RPM) sector as well as reduced corporate costs.

On a year-on-year basis, earnings are projected to fall 7% due to softer crude oil prices, though the decline will be partially offset by a slight improvement in downstream operations. Revenues are expected to remain broadly stable compared with the previous quarter but show a modest drop year-on-year, the brokerage added.

Al Rajhi Capital reiterated an “overweight” rating on Aramco shares, setting a target price of 31 riyals.

The brokerage said Saudi Arabia’s oil production averaged around 8.95 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter, while crude oil prices averaged about $75 a barrel, compared with $74 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024 (realized price: $73.1) and $81.2 a barrel in the year-earlier period (realized price: $83.0).

Brent crude prices, although volatile due to geopolitical tensions, edged slightly higher during the quarter, it said. OPEC+, meanwhile, reaffirmed plans to start rolling back production cuts from April 2025, with full restoration of output expected by September 2026.

Upstream performance is seen improving slightly compared to the fourth quarter, driven by marginally higher realized prices despite similar production volumes. In the downstream segment, better chemical product prices are expected to support performance, although gains will likely be limited due to only modest improvements in refining margins, Al Rajhi Capital said.