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US employers probably tempered their hiring in March, just as consumers grow increasingly cautious and the economic outlook dims on concerns about the fallout from higher tariffs, Bloomberg reported.
Payrolls rose by 138,000, below the 151,000 increase a month earlier, according to the median projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would leave average job growth over the past three months at the slowest pace since October. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.1%.
The latest report card on the labor market follows data that indicate a notable first-quarter slowing in the economy. Personal spending barely rose last month after a January slump, disposable income growth remained soft, and March consumer sentiment sank on fears of mounting inflationary pressures.
Shortly after Friday’s jobs data, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will discuss the economic outlook. Other Fed governors, including Adriana Kugler, Philip Jefferson, Lisa Cook and Michael Barr, are also due to speak in the coming week.
Anxiety is building among households and businesses about President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade posture. Trump on Wednesday is expected to unleash his biggest tariff salvo to date — a package of blanket increases in duties on foreign imports.
The US administration is seeking to reverse trade imbalances, spark investment in the US, and spur the domestic output of critical goods and materials.
Trump told NBC News in an interview on Saturday that he “couldn’t care less” if automakers raise car prices in response to the planned tariffs on imported vehicles.
With consumer spending and confidence sliding, any notable weakening in job growth would raise additional concerns about the economy’s prospects. Economists are also parsing business survey data for signs that more companies are putting expansion plans on ice until there’s greater clarity on policy.
On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management will issue its March manufacturing survey, followed two days later by its report on services activity. S&P Global will put out similar releases.
Meanwhile, still-elevated inflation and the risk of a tariff-related increase in goods prices explains why Fed policymakers are in no rush to resume lowering interest rates.