JPMorgan expects copper prices to reach $11,000 per ton in 2026

JP Morgan said in a note dated Friday that it expects the global deficit in refined copper to grow to 160,000 metric tons in 2026, and copper prices to average about $11,000 per metric ton next year.

The bank said it expects a tariff of at least 10% on refined copper and copper products by late Q3 2025, with a high risk of a higher 25% tariff. (CNN)

JP Morgan noted that “the potential buildup of excess stocks in the United States in the coming months ahead of the imposition of copper tariffs sets the stage for the rest of the world to be left short of copper … setting the stage for our expected upward push in the second half of 2025 toward $10,400 per metric ton.”

The bank also forecast that demand growth in China would slow from 4% last year to 2.5% this year, adding that “this remains the biggest downside risk to the expected tightening of copper markets.”

JP Morgan also forecast only a slight slowdown in global copper demand growth from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) report showed that the global refined copper market recorded a deficit of 22,000 metric tons in December, compared with a deficit of 124,000 metric tons in November.

Meanwhile, Citibank said in a note last week that it expects the final implementation of specific copper tariffs of 25% by the fourth quarter of 2025, following an executive order issued by US President Donald Trump.

Copper prices rose in London on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar and improving industrial activity in China, the largest consumer of the metal.