A study warns of a global economic recession in H2, 2025

A survey conducted by the Council of Global CFOs for CNBC revealed that the economy is expected to enter a recession in the second half of 2025.

The stock market had enjoyed a comfortable rally at the beginning of the week and attempted to maintain its rebound Tuesday morning, as comments from Trump’s economic team over the weekend indicated a more flexible stance on tariffs. But inside the boardroom, hope is unlikely to replace caution anytime soon.

Many executives across the economy remain uneasy about the prospects of a trade war and a White House that has given every indication that it is ideologically committed to a major shift in global economic policy. The shifting messages from President Trump, which continue to add confusion to the tariff planning process, have not helped. Pessimism and confusion: In short, “pessimism” has returned to what it was after Trump’s election. That’s one way to summarize the results of the latest CNBC CFO Council quarterly survey for the first quarter of 2025. While some CFOs said Trump is delivering on his campaign promises, many said his approach to executing his agenda isn’t what they expected.

One CFO surveyed described his vision for Trump’s second term so far as “too chaotic for companies to manage effectively.” CFOs described their current outlook as “extreme,” “disruptive,” “aggressive,” and “adventurous.”

All of this leads to a majority of CFOs (60%) saying they expect a recession in the second half of the year—and another 15% saying it will occur in 2026.