Oil inches up on Kazakhstan supply disruption

18 Feb 2025

Riyadh -Maaal

Brent crude oil prices advanced on Tuesday adding to gains in the previous session after a drone attack on an oil pipeline pumping station in Russia reduced flows from Kazakhstan, but gains were capped on the prospects of supply rising soon, Reuters reported.

Brent crude futures gained 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $75.37 per barrel at 0454 GMT.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 67 cents from Friday’s close at $71.41 a barrel. There was no settlement for WTI on Monday due to the U.S. Presidents’ Day holiday.

“The overriding theme driving oil prices lately has been around supply expectations. With the weakness in prices over the past weeks, news of a drone strike on Kazakhstan’s export pipeline in Russia has provided the catalyst for some bearish sentiment to unwind,” IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said in an email.

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The drone strike on the Kropotkinskaya station in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region reduced shipments from Kazakhstan to world markets by Western firms including Chevron and Exxon Mobil, operator Caspian Pipeline Consortium said on Monday.

The Black Sea CPC Blend oil loading plan for February would remain unchanged, two sources familiar with the plan told Reuters.

“However, longer-term gains are likely to remain capped as the market may anticipate higher supplies from OPEC+ and Russia further down the road, while improvement in demand outlook particularly from China still remains uncertain, going by recent economic data,” IG’s Yeap said.

BMI analysts said in a note that they see Brent prices averaging $76 a barrel in 2025, down 5% from the 2024 average, because of market oversupply, tariffs and trade tensions.

OPEC+ producers are not considering delaying a series of monthly oil supply increases scheduled to begin in April, according to a Russian state media report.

In December, OPEC had pushed back a plan to begin raising output to April, due to weak demand and rising supply outside the group.

Markets were also waiting to see if Russia-Ukraine peace talks will bear fruit, as U.S. and Russian officials meet for talks in Saudi Arabia later on Tuesday.

“There is seemingly plenty to be bearish about in the crude market, the biggest factor now being the outcome of Ukraine negotiations. Russian oil may partially come back to the legitimate market, though there are of course many permutations as to the end result here,” said Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby.