Oil Steadies in Thin Trading as Investors Focus on 2025 Outlook

Oil was steady as traders focused on 2025 risks, from ample supply to the unpredictability of the incoming Trump administration, Bloomberg reported.

West Texas Intermediate held above $70 a barrel in thin trading after advancing 1.6% last week, and Brent was near $74. There are widespread expectations that the market will be oversupplied next year, which is likely to make it harder for OPEC and its allies to revive idled production.

Crude is heading for a loss this year, with trading confined to a narrow range since mid-October. The market has been buffeted by bullish and bearish signals, including persistent hostilities in the Middle East and concerns around Chinese demand, the world’s biggest oil importer.

The actions of President-elect Donald Trump after he takes office next month will keep traders on edge. He has already threatened tariffs on oil producers Canada and Mexico, while his pick for national security adviser vowed “maximum pressure” on Iran.

“Crude oil futures trade slightly down on the year with most traders and analysts having adopted a cautious outlook for 2025 given multiple uncertainties,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank.

That includes the risk of Trump tariffs hurting global growth and demand, China’s economic outlook, the pace of the transition towards electrification, and the ability of OPEC+ to stick together amid falling prices and high levels of spare capacity, he said.