Knight Frank: Riyadh’s population to grow to 9.6 million by 2030

By 2030, Riyadh City’s population is forecast to increase from 7 million, recorded in the 2022 Census, to 9.6 million, comprised of 4.1 million Saudis and 5.5 million expats, according to global property consultancy Knight Frank’s white paper: How the population is driving development: Riyadh’s near future.

This represents a 38% increase on the 2022 population levels, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of 4.1%.

Knight Frank’s whitepaper also forecasts that, as a result of population growth, between 2024 and 2034, demand for additional housing units from Saudi nationals is estimated to be around 305,000 units.

Dr Christopher Payne, Partner – Chief Economist, MENA, explained: “Often when we think about Saudi’s huge investment projects, including the well-known Giga projects, we overlook the real driver of what’s going on; namely that Saudi’s population of nationals is growing quickly.

Riyadh is at the start of a huge and necessary wave of housing construction. With its investment plans, Riyadh, and the Kingdom as a whole, can reap the benefits of a demographic dividend available to few countries around the world.”

So far, according to Knight Frank analysis, already-announced projects by government-related entities are expected to add c.330,000 housing units to Riyadh’s housing stock and are scheduled to be finished by 2030. These entities include the National Housing Company, Roshn, New Murabba and Diriyah gate.

Given that the expat population of Riyadh is also forecast to grow significantly, additional announcements around housing in the capital should be expected, says Knight Frank.

Riyadh’s workforce set to expand rapidly.

The number of Saudis working in Riyadh could increase by between 16% and 23% up to 2030, and between 29% and 39% up to 2034, compared to Q1 2024.

The announced additions to office, retail and hospitality stock of around 30% to each sector, as well as the multiple infrastructure and supply-side projects and initiatives underway are necessary measures that aim to provide Riyadh’s residents with sufficient employment opportunities.

Ian Sinclair, Partner – Project and Development Services, KSA, said: “As we head to 2030, we know with high certainty that there will be a large number of major development projects that will meet the demand from Saudis and expats for housing, amenities and employment opportunities.

“Our project management team, made up of industry experts with deep experience in Saudi Arabia are here to assure delivery of these projects that will support the Kingdom’s economic transformation”.

Initiatives focused on Riyadh targets finance, tech, hospitality and manufacturing

Many of the supply-side measures reported into Knight Frank’s white paper are intended to further boost Riyadh’s role in the Kingdom as a hub for financial and business services, as well as its role as the Kingdom’s driver of innovation in information and communication technology.

Where policy initiatives are geared towards targeted growth sectors, such as manufacturing and tourism, they incorporate a significant build-out of physical infrastructure. Taken together, these projects and initiatives aim to foster an environment of job creation and economic growth.