Boeing: China needs 8,830 new aircraft over 20 years

American aircraft manufacturer Boeing said on Monday that it expects China to need 8,830 new aircraft in the next 20 years until 2043, as the country’s aviation industry expands and develops to meet the growing demand for air travel for passengers and cargo.

With this, Boeing’s forecast has increased by 3.2 percent compared to its forecast the previous year, when it said last year that Chinese airlines would need to buy 8,560 new commercial aircraft over 20 years.

It is worth noting that with Western airlines avoiding Russian airspace due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the competitiveness and profitability of Western companies has declined compared to their Chinese counterparts, benefiting from friendship with Russia and Chinese travelers’ preference for Chinese-speaking flight crews.

According to CNN, Steve Saxon, a partner at McKinsey & Company, says, “Western airlines have not regained their ability to fly to China as quickly as Chinese airlines have regained their ability to fly from China after the Covid-19 pandemic.” Chinese leader Xi Jinping had declared a “no-borders” partnership with Russia weeks before the war broke out in February 2022, and has continued to strengthen ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin since then. Chinese airlines have benefited from shorter northern routes to Europe and North America over Russia’s vast airspace. By contrast, airlines from other countries have been barred from Russian airspace or have chosen to fly around it due to safety concerns. The detour, which sometimes bypasses Ukrainian airspace, can add up to three hours to flight times between Asian and European cities, with a significant increase in cost, Saxon said. “A European airline might cost an additional $8,000 to $10,000 in fuel to add two hours to the flight,” he said, also citing higher crew costs and additional aircraft to maintain service. Although U.S. airlines have delayed plans to resume flights to China, Air China in March added two new flights from the Chinese capital to New York and one to Los Angeles, and other Chinese airlines have increased their flight frequencies to the United States. According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, Chinese airlines have reached their maximum permitted 50 flights to the United States per week, while the three U.S. carriers that fly to China — Delta, American Airlines and United Airlines — operate just 35 flights.