Morgan Stanley expects oil market to achieve a surplus during 2025

Morgan Stanley revealed that it expects the oil market to witness a surplus next year, with Brent prices falling to a range of $75-79 per barrel.

He stated that the lack of supply will continue during most of the third quarter, but the balance will return by the last quarter, when the seasonal winds favorable to demand recede and supplies from OPEC and outside it return to the increase.

The bank expected supplies from OPEC and outside it to grow by about 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025, which far exceeds demand growth. It also expected that the refinery operating rate would reach its peak in August this year, and it is likely that it will not return to this level until July 2025.

Morgan Stanley left its forecast for Brent crude prices for the third quarter of 2024 unchanged at $86 per barrel.

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs also maintained its forecast for the quarter for the average price of Brent crude at the same price.