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JPMorgan believes that the currently high oil prices have the potential to increase further in the coming period, and that Brent crude may rise to $150 per barrel.
According to Christian Malik, an analyst at the American bank, production capacity shocks in the near to medium term, and a shift away from investments in the hydrocarbons sector, may eventually lead the price of Brent crude to $150 per barrel.
The recent high oil prices due to OPEC production cuts and high demand have stoked inflationary fears and raised concerns that interest rates will remain high for a longer period.
A higher interest rate environment for a longer period is one of the main factors behind JPMorgan’s bullish outlook on prices, as it believes that this environment will lead to curbing capital investments allocated to energy exploration and production.
Malik also pointed to another factor, which is the political and institutional pressures that are accelerating the transition away from hydrocarbons.
Therefore, he believes that the average price of Brent crude will range between $90 and $110 per barrel in 2024, and between $100 and $120 per barrel in 2025, before reaching $150 by 2026.
According to these estimates, the disparity between global supply and demand will stabilize at 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, and increase to 7.1 million barrels per day in 2030.
Estimates also indicated that Brent crude oil would reach levels of $80 per barrel in the long term, despite the risk that the crude price would reach about $100 per barrel.