Sugar prices fall 32% globally during 2024

A monitoring by (Maaal) revealed that expectations indicating the possibility of India lifting the sugar export ban led to a 32% decline in global prices during the current year 2024, despite the fears that dominated the market as a result of the drought that loomed over the crop in Brazil, the largest producer and exporter of sugar in the world.

According to the monitoring, the average price of a ton of sugar globally issued by the International Sugar Organization at the end of last week recorded about $510 per ton, excluding shipping costs, down from $752 per ton at the end of 2023, meaning that the ton lost about $242 of its value during 2024, as the pace of decline accelerated in the last three months against the backdrop of expectations that the surplus in India will rise to a level exceeding 5 million tons, which will push the government to lift the export ban to catch up with the rice commodity, which led to the improvement of the crop to lift the Indian government’s ban on the export of non-Basmati white rice. Locally, according to data from the General Authority for Statistics, local sugar prices began to respond to global declines, recording an increase of 8% last November compared to the same month last year, to reduce their increase during the first half of this year, which reached 17% last July compared to the same month of 2023, affected by global increases witnessed by global prices in the second half of the year.

According to the monitoring, the average price of (family) sugar for a 10-kilogram package recorded about 44.5 riyals last November, compared to about 41.4 riyals, an increase of 8%, as the pace of increase declined significantly during the second half of this year, specifically since July 2024, in which it recorded 44 riyals for the package, an increase of 17% compared to July 2023.

Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of sugar in the world, accounting for about 50% of global exports, followed by Thailand with 13%, then India with 4%, which may return to being the second largest exporter after Brazil if the export ban is lifted.

The recent decline in global prices came after the head of the Sugar Mills Association of India revealed that India could export (2) million tons of sugar this season if the government allowed it to do so amid improved local supplies and falling prices in India, and he expected the export surplus to rise to 5.6 million tons by the end of the next season on October 1, 2025.

India, the third largest exporter of sugar in the world after Brazil and Thailand, had banned sugar exports last year after drought caused a significant decline in sugarcane productivity and a significant rise in sugar prices in the local market.

Weather developments in Brazil limited the decline in global sugar prices as a result of the fears that dominated its markets after initial estimates of the extent of the damage resulting from the sugarcane field fires that broke out in the largest sugar-producing states in Brazil.

The local market is anticipating a gradual response of local prices to global declines during the first months of next year 2025, as the Kingdom imports about 1.8 million tons of sugar annually, and most of the Kingdom’s imports are imported from Brazil, as it is the largest exporter in the world, as well as from Thailand, Australia and Guatemala, which have not imposed restrictions on their sugar exports.