(Maaal) Estimates: PIF records Cumulative growth of 19% to achieve its asset targets of 10 trillion riyals by 2030

The Public Investment Fund – the Kingdom’s sovereign fund – raised its asset value targets to 10 trillion riyals (approximately $2.7 trillion) by 2030, an average of the target of 7.5 trillion riyals that it had announced at the beginning of the launch of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030. Data from the PIF, which leads Tamkeen, shows the private sector and diversifying the productive base of the Saudi economy, its assets currently amount to 3.47 trillion riyals.

According to the vision statements announced on April 25, the assets of the Public Investment Fund targeted in the vision amount to 10 trillion riyals, which means that the target increased by 2.5 trillion riyals from the previously announced target.

(Maaal) conducted an analysis of the fund’s annual growth rate from the current year until 2030 to achieve the new target for assets, which is 10 trillion riyals. The analysis showed that the fund needs cumulative growth from the current year until the end of 2030 amounting to 19% to achieve the target in its assets.

Assuming that the Fund will end the current year at the current asset level of 3.47 trillion, it is expected that the Fund next year 2025 will record a growth in its assets by 19%, bringing the value of assets to 4.1 trillion riyals.

It is expected that the fund’s assets will continue to grow cumulatively by 19% annually, reaching 4.9 trillion riyals in 2026, and during 2027 the value of its assets is expected to increase to 5.9 trillion riyals.

While in 2028, the value of the fund’s assets is expected to increase to 7 trillion riyals, and during 2029 it will reach 8.4 trillion riyals, while in 2030 it is expected to reach the target of 10 trillion riyals.

It is noteworthy that the value of the Fund’s assets during 2016 was 720 billion riyals, while in 2024 it reached 3.47 trillion riyals, with a growth of 382%.

Since the beginning of Vision 2030, the strategy of the Public Investment Fund has been changed and its portfolio has been diversified between domestic investment and foreign investment, and between fixed assets, stocks, and investments in large projects such as: NEOM, Qiddiya, the Red Sea, and other projects that the private sector cannot enter into at this stage.

The PIF has achieved an annual return since the beginning of the vision realization program of approximately 8%, and it is expected that the fund’s return after 2030 will support the national economy and the state’s public treasury by about 500 billion riyals annually, noting that this amount is measured on the basis of a 5% return. This is a very conservative rate, according to Mal’s estimates.

Vision 2030 aims to diversify the local economy, diversify public budget revenues, and free itself from fluctuations in international markets that directly affect the gross domestic product and the state’s general budget.

During the last period, the fund aimed to diversify the investment base and enter into economic sectors that had not been optimally exploited in the past. Some of these sectors are considered somewhat new to the Saudi economy or require restructuring to improve the sector.

These sectors include: the tourism sector, the service facilities sector, renewable energy, the metals and mining sector, the real estate sector, the aviation and defense sector, the agri-food sector, the vehicle industry sector, the health care sector, the construction sector, the transportation and logistics sector, the consumer goods and retail sector, the financial services sector, and the entertainment and sports sector.

These sectors will help diversify the productive base of the Saudi economy in the future, and it is expected that the Fund will create many jobs in these economic sectors. The plan is for the Fund to create approximately 1.8 million jobs by the end of 2025 and to spend within the local economy 150 billion riyals annually as a minimum, and contribute in non-oil GDP, approximately 1.2 trillion riyals cumulatively until the end of 2025.