Climate phenomenon “El Niño” threatens the world.. What is it ‎and how does it affect economy?‎

World Meteorological Organization warned governments of the need to prepare for more extreme weather events and record temperatures in the coming months, at a time when it announced the onset of the “El Niño” phenomenon.

According to CNN, the “El Nino” phenomenon is a natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that leads to higher sea surface temperatures than the average and has a significant impact on weather all over the world, which in turn affects billions of people.

“The onset of the El Niño phenomenon will greatly increase the possibility of breaking temperature records and causing more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

The phenomenon has a wide impact on weather conditions for a period of between nine and 12 months, but these are not the only expected effects. In addition to climate change, the “El Niño” phenomenon this year could affect the economic growth of the United States, which may be reflected in everything from food prices to sales of winter clothes.

Dartmouth University research estimates that El Niño amplification patterns could produce “devastating socioeconomic effects” in the coming decades, and predicts that El Niño events will cause economic losses of about $84 trillion in the twenty-first century.

“There are significant negative consequences for economic growth in the event of severe weather,” said Christopher Callahan, Ph.D. from Dartmouth University and lead author on a study in the journal Science. The study attributed losses of about $5.7 trillion in global income to the “El Niño” phenomenon between 1997 and 1999, and losses of about $4.1 trillion to the same phenomenon between 1982 and 1983.

Callahan pointed out that the effects of these events “last for a long time, and they are much more expensive than we thought.” The study found that the negative effects of climate patterns could have repercussions on the countries of the world many years after their end.

Callahan says that the extreme weather associated with the “El Niño” phenomenon causes floods, wildfires, hurricanes and other natural disasters.

This could affect food prices, as sugar and cocoa futures are trading at multi-year highs on predictions of supply shortages, while Robusta coffee futures are trading at all-time highs.

This could translate into higher prices for chocolate, coffee, etc., and rising food prices is a common theme during the period of the “El Niño” phenomenon, according to Deutsche Bank’s recent report.

“The effects go beyond farms, as unexpected fluctuations in the weather could negatively affect the retail sector,” said Simeon Siegel, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets.

He added, “Retailers or brands should not only anticipate what consumers want, but also anticipate what nature will throw at them.”

The travel and tourism sector may also be affected by the “El Niño” outbreak. In a 2021 study conducted in the “Atmosphere” magazine, researchers analyzed the number of visits to 48 natural attractions in the United States to test preparations for travel during the “El Niño” events. The research concluded that this phenomenon led to a “significant decrease” in the number of tourist visits.

According to a report by Deutsche Bank, the hurricane season in the Pacific witnessed 16 hurricanes in 2014 and 2015, which is the highest combined number ever.

Therefore, the recurrence of the phenomenon may be a matter of concern for airlines, which are already finding it difficult to deal with cancellations and weather-related disruptions this summer.

According to the US Federal Aviation Administration, inclement weather is “by far the biggest cause of flight delays.”

The “El Niño” phenomenon could bring benefits to some American regions. California, for example, will welcome the rainy season after the drought in recent years. According to Chris Schuring, a lawyer at the California Agriculture Office, “the wet year adds luster to these landscapes; The reservoirs are filling up again, the aquifers are returning a little, and the snow freeze here is wonderful. “It is always good for agriculture, except for people who suffer from flood-related effects,” he added

The last time an El Niño occurred in 2018 through 2019, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) named it The Great Puny El Niño, due to its relatively limited impact on weather conditions.

However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center recently said that chances are “high” that this El Niño event will intensify at its peak.