BP: Oil demand will decline from 100 million bpd to 75 million ‎by 2050‎

25 Jun 2023

Riyadh - Maaal

اقرأ المزيد

Al-Shall weekly report confirmed that it is necessary to start with a warning that most of the scenarios that talk about the future of oil in the long run contain a high political dose. Complex influencing variables, including political, technical and economic developments

The report pointed out that the justifications for that decrease in their estimate will come from the decrease in consumption in the transportation sector and passenger cars in particular, and most of that reduction will be achieved in developed countries keen to reduce carbon emissions.

And while consumption may stabilize, or even increase slightly in emerging economies, and their share in oil demand may rise from 55% in 2021 to 70% in 2050, the total demand for oil will decrease for several factors.

At the beginning of the era, an increase in the operating efficiency of fossil fuels may double the reduction resulting from the increase in the contribution of clean fuels, and by 2040 the reduction resulting from the two sources will be equal, and by 2050 the reduction resulting from the use of clean fuels will be double the reduction resulting from the efficient consumption of fossil fuels.

Al-Shall concluded by saying: “Scenarios for the future of oil are multiple and long, and they are not in our report. What we only wanted is to point out that the dispute has become about the amount of pressure and the time span that the scenario of the weakness of the oil market may take, not the inevitability of its weakness, and as long as we are in The country with the highest dependence on oil in the world, and in a country where the diversification of income sources is still no more than a banner or a slogan, we wanted to support the scenario of a possible dangerous imbalance in the employment balance with a warning that may contribute to raising awareness of early hedging in its repercussions.