Can Europe Replace Russian Oil, Gas?

FAISAL FAEQ

@FAISALFAEQ

It is surprising how the international oil media involved the gas issue in the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. However, the conflict isn’t new and repeated throughout the years. This time it has employed with anti-Russian agendas. However, Russia significantly contributed to the stability of oil markets through its commitment to the “OPEC+” alliance.

European countries import about a quarter of their oil and petroleum refined products from Russia, which exports about 6.5 million barrels per day of oil, diesel fuel and naphtha. Also, the European oil markets and refineries are the most affected by any economic sanctions on Russia or pipeline interruptions.

Russia is the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe, with about 40% of Europe needs shipped via pipelines and natural gas accounts for about 20% of electrical power generation and is also used for heating and industries. Hence, if Russian gas stops flowing, measures to replace its gas supply will not be adequate.

The European Union tried hard several years ago to conclude a cooperation agreement between its members to reduce dependence on Russian gas. Still, it was unable to find an alternative to meet all its gas needs at a time when 80% of Russian gas exports to the European Union pass through the 13 pipelines: four direct pipelines to Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Germany, four pipelines through Belarus to Lithuania, and Poland and five pipelines through Ukraine, heading to Slovakia, Romania, Hungary and Poland (Eastern Europe), which is still dependent on Russia to meet almost all of its gas needs, and fears a shortage of gas supplies during the winter peak demand season.

Recently, the United States has been trying to secure alternative supplies of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to Europe from significant LNG exporters in anticipation of the interruption of Russian gas pipeline shipments in a conflict with Ukraine.

Russian gas is transported to Europe through pipelines in its gaseous state. As for transporting it by sea from LNG-exporting countries such as Qatar and the United States, it requires first liquefaction and conversion from gas to liquid and transported via liquefied gas tankers, after which it is unloaded in designated ports and returned to its gaseous state again and then sent via pipelines to end-users. This requires costly infrastructure for LNG export facilities, liquefaction facilities and regasification plants that cost billions of dollars and take several years to build. Transporting natural gas by pipeline has a strong economic advantage in terms of price and a logistical advantage in transportation.

Concisely, the European gas consumers, especially some Eastern European countries such as Estonia, Lithuania, Poland and Finland, have not prepared for the opportunity to invest heavily in the infrastructure of LNG, which is very expensive because of the presence of the waterways. Therefore, neither the United States nor Qatari LNG gas can reach all the countries of the European Union, which made it impossible for the European Union to replace the Russian gas.